In this brave new world, instability isn’t just a phase to ride out – it’s the new global operating system. Ian Di Tullio, Chief Commercial Officer of Minor Hotels

Geopolitical risk is no longer background noise. It’s the soundtrack to global business – and it’s growing louder.

In boardrooms around the world, it has eclipsed inflation, interest rates, and even technology disruption, as the top concern. McKinsey data shows 90% of executives now rank geopolitics as their primary threat to growth.

This isn’t merely a tremor, but a seismic shift. Around the world, regional conflicts are intensifying. Elections are injecting volatility into global markets, with more than 60 national elections in 2024 alone redrawing the worldwide regulatory map. Tariffs have surged sixfold since 2017, while trade, data, and air rights policies are in constant flux.

For hospitality, a sector built on open borders and fluid movement, this new normal requires a radical rethinking of strategy and structure. It’s not enough to be reactive. The real opportunity instead lies in building organizations that are resilient, agile, and geopolitically fluent, able not just to absorb shocks, but to turn them into competitive advantage.

We must stop treating geopolitics as external noise and embed it in the business core.

AN INHOSPITABLE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Hospitality has always been influenced by cultural and political currents, but today these forces drive guest flows and revenue more directly than ever.

US travel health has dipped amid diplomatic friction, economic turmoil curtailed demand for specific destinations in 2023. Conference and incentive groups have increasingly rerouted due to regional instability – an immediate P&L hit that traditional forecasting often misses. Talent deployment faces similar unpredictability. Traditional segmentation by market size or traveller profile now requires a geopolitical overlay.

These aren’t theoretical risks. We’ve seen it all in the past few years – airspace closures to lockdowns, sanctions, and sudden policy reversals – and they hit bottom lines in real time. Traditional forecasting models can’t keep up.

Our industry no longer simply feels the effects of geopolitics, but sits at the epicenter. In this environment, what we need is not more prediction, but more preparation.

THE SHIFT: FROM REACTION TO FLUENCY

Too many companies still treat geopolitical risk like a weather forecast, checking occasionally and hoping for clear skies. But geopolitical fluency must become a core commercial competency. Not a siloed risk function, not a compliance check – a lens embedded across forecasting, pricing, partnerships, and go-to-market strategy.

While nearly all executives recognize geopolitical risk, only 13-18% have integrated it into strategic planning, according to McKinsey. Scenario planning remains fragmented. But geostrategic fluency demands embedding diverse lenses – policy, cultural, economic – into forecasting, go-to-market, pricing, and partnerships.

Change is happening, but slowly. The shift is from hedging risk to embedding fluency. From reactive alerts to structures that defuse threats and harness emerging geopolitical configurations for growth.

The future belongs to companies that don’t treat geopolitical fluency as a bolt-on, but as strategy itself. Systems, playbooks, and reflexes that enable decisive action – not just because you saw it coming, but because you were ready.

At Minor Hotels, we’re making this shift. We’re integrating early-warning signals – visa data, trade patterns, political sentiment – into our commercial planning. We’re redesigning how we localize brands. And we’re learning from the best: from Microsoft’s geopolitical dashboards to Airbnb’s values-led decision frameworks.

LESSONS FROM THE FRONTLINES

Over the past decade, I’ve led commercial teams through multiple geopolitical shifts – including the 2017 GCC crisis that saw airspace closures over Qatar, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Israel-Iran escalations, and the recent earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand. These moments reshaped how we scenario-plan, communicate, and reallocate resources.

But we haven’t done this in isolation. We’ve studied and adapted models from industry leaders:

Early warnings and rapid response (Microsoft)

Microsoft has managed to integrate geopolitical alerts into its executive dashboards, using inputs from its intelligence, policy, and risk teams to flag risks with the same urgency as cybersecurity threats. Inspired by this, Minor has started proactively monitoring visa regimes, regulatory signals, and political sentiment in key regions – with the aim of better anticipating market shifts before they disrupt demand.

Scenario planning and governance (Citigroup)

Citigroup uses structured geopolitical scenarios to run strategic stress testing and guide its capital allocation. Their approach helps leaders make fast, informed trade-offs even amidst uncertainty. At Minor, our scenario planning is still evolving, but we’re exploring ways to link regional forecasts more closely to commercial decision cycles.

Values-led decision making (Airbnb)

Airbnb developed an internal framework for operating in politically sensitive territories, balancing commercial feasibility with brand integrity and stakeholder expectations. We are reflecting on similar questions at Minor — ensuring that where we operate, and how we show up, aligns with our values.

These are just a few examples from beyond our sector, but they offer valuable direction for all of us in the hospitality space. While Minor is still aspirational in many of these areas, we’re actively working to build the structures and reflexes needed to embed geopolitical fluency into our commercial strategy.

BUILDING BRANDS FIT FOR A SHIFTING WORLD

We’re not going back to stability. The future will bring new shocks – climate displacement, data protectionism, and shifting power blocs. Travel demand will rebound, but the winners will be those who build geopolitical architecture into their brands.

Here are five imperatives for hospitality leaders:

• Build a geo-diverse portfolio: Growth is no longer just a commercial pursuit, it’s a geopolitical hedge. Build diverse geo-portfolios to balance trade corridors, ally blocs, and regulatory regimes
• Localize like you mean it: True localization means embedding political and legal adaptation into brand deployment – from R&D and supply chains to ESG and ownership structures. This is essential not only for legal permission, but also community legitimacy and brand trust.
• Operationalize crisis reflexes: Commercial systems must flex in real time: pricing, channel mix, loyalty rules, even inventory, as tariffs and political disruptions make planning unpredictable. Daily crisis war rooms and real-time dashboards can reduce write-downs and preserve trust.
• Define your red lines: Know where you will and won’t play. Align market entry decisions with your brand values and stakeholder expectations. Reputation is part of your balance sheet.
• Put geopolitics on the agenda: Geostrategic scenarios should sit alongside your financial models and market forecasts. If geopolitical fluency isn’t in your strategy sessions, you’re already behind.

Hospitality has a unique edge: we’re on the ground, embedded in communities, close to customers. With the right structure, we can turn global uncertainty into local strength.

FINAL WORD

This is not another disruption cycle; it’s a shift in the operating system. The best organizations won’t be those with the biggest budgets, but those with the strongest reflexes, clearest principles, and keenest geopolitical acumen.

In hospitality, geopolitics isn’t someone else’s problem. It’s our competitive playing field. Success belongs not to those who predicted the future, but to those prepared to thrive in it.