A sweeping new analysis from Kalibri Labs, the hospitality industry’s leading revenue performance intelligence platform, reveals the current impact of federal funding changes and macroeconomic uncertainty on the U.S. hotel industry. The white paper, Navigating Market Turbulence: The Impact of Federal Policy Changes on U.S. Hotel Performance and Demand Outlook, dissects data from more than 35,000 hotels and reveals how federal policy decisions are reverberating through travel segments and regional markets.

Key Findings:

Trends reflect performance from January 2024–early April 2025, including actualized room nights through April 5 and 30-day future bookings as of April 4, 2025 (On-the-Books).

• U.S. Hotel Market Shows Mixed Performance
  Of 334 U.S. markets, 53% (177) saw YTD declines of up to -22%, while 47% (157) remained flat or improved. Total U.S. room night volume is down 1% year-over-year, with future bookings pacing 4% below 2024 levels.
• Government Travel Sees Steep Decline
  76% of 334 U.S. markets reported YTD declines in government per-diem transient room nights. Total U.S. government per-diem transient bookings are down 9% YTD, with future bookings 20% below 2024 levels.
• Washington, D.C. Area Reflects Policy Impact
  The Washington, D.C. market (DC/MD/VA) posted a -20% YTD drop in government per-diem bookings and a -44% decline in 30-day future government per-diem bookings (as of 4/4/25).

Federal policy is reshaping travel patterns in ways that directly impact business planning and hotel profitability. We have always seen muted travel growth during times of economic uncertainty and the duration and extent of the disruption is not yet known. However, to navigate this evolving landscape, commercial teams need a granular, real-time view of demand. Precision—not broad targeting—will define the winners in today’s hospitality market. Consumers and businesses will always return to traveling, but the short-term decisions made to manage this turbulent period are critical as they can affect long-term hotel results for years to come. Cindy Estis Green, Co-Founder & CEO of Kalibri Labs

What’s Next for the Industry:

With chain class disparities widening and core segments like corporate and government travel softening, hotel stakeholders must evaluate assumptions about demand resilience and profitability. Kalibri’s report provides a detailed roadmap by market, segment, and rate category and updates will be available both weekly and through monthly publications.

Download the full white paper

About Kalibri Labs

Kalibri Labs evaluates and forecasts revenue and cost of acquisition performance in the digital marketplace. Our next-generation HummingbirdPXM platform is the only hotel benchmarking and reporting solution driven by AI and machine learning. HummingbirdPXM is built on a robust database of daily transactions and cost of acquisition data gathered weekly from almost 35,000 hotels. Using advanced algorithms, the platform enables owners and operators to determine a hotel’s optimal business mix and manage resources to achieve it. Kalibri Labs unpacks the composition of RevPAR to describe market demand by rate category and channel assisting hotel owners and operators to develop strategies that improve profit contribution, which leads to higher asset values. Tapped regularly by the real estate and investment community, the Kalibri Labs database supports hotel transactions and financial restructuring by brokers, lenders, appraisers, and financial consultants. For more information, visit www.kalibrilabs.com.

Markets & PerformanceUnited States